Recently I was exposed to the concept of peak oil. This is the concept that at a certain point in time oil production reaches a plateau and then steadily declines. This concept can be applied to a single oil field, a country, or global world production. Every oil field follows a similar bell curve. As production begins, the bell curve steadily increases, eventually reaching an apex. This apex is called peak oil, and it does not last very long. Inevitably, production begins to decline, thereby creating the downward bell curve.
In the United States, peak oil occurred in 1970. That year, we produced 10 million barrels per day. The apex only lasted a few months and then production began to decline. Today we produce less than 5 million barrels per day and the decline continues unabated.
I knew that oil was a limited finite resource and that sometime in Buy CBD Oil Online the future oil production would not meet world demand. I knew that day was approaching, but I always assumed it would not occur until at least 2015 and possibly 2025, and that by that time we would have a substitute. I was too optimistic.
I’ve read five books on the subject and countless internet articles. Trust me, I did my homework. My research led to three conclusions:
1. Within 3-5 years we will reach global peak production.
2. Within 3 years high oil prices will have begun creating economic havoc.
3. High oil prices will eventually collapse the economy.
The focus of my research tried to answer one question: When will we reach global peak production? The answer is soon (by my estimate within 3 years). Yes, new production is coming online, but there are a limited number of projects that will begin production in the next three years. These projects must offset annual production decreases at existing fields of at least 2%, and a projected annual demand increase of 2%.
To meet the expected 2% annual demand increase for the next three years (2006-2008), production must reach 90 million barrels per day. This will require an increase of 11 million barrels per day of new production (5.5 million barrels a day to meet new demand and 5.5 million barrels per day offset declining production at existing fields).
Can global oil production increase 11 million barrels per day over the next three years? Unlikely. What is much more likely is that peak oil production will never reach 90 million barrels per day, but something closer to 87. If you want an estimated time for peak production, my bet is 2007. This will also likely be the year when oil reaches $100 a barrel. We are literally on the precipice of $100 a barrel oil.